Wheat Outlook: Season crop report for October

Summary

With the winter cropping season nearing an end, prospects continue to deteriorate towards a below average winter cropping season with a predicted wheat yield of 1.53 t/ha at state level. This is 19% below the long-term median yield expectation of the state. This outlook incorporates current soil water conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook based on the southern oscillation index (SOI). Overall, the crop outlook for the state as a whole will finish below average. Specifically, SWQ and SEQ have yield outcomes ranked in the bottom 25% of all years and yield departures of -27% and -19% from the long-term median, respectively. Conversely, CQ has yield outcomes close to the long-term expectation (39^th percentile and -6% below the long-term median).

General Conditions

Rainfall recorded during September was below to very much below average across most of SEQ’s cropping region. In contrast, the remiander of the state recorded avarega rainfal during that peirod. Rainfall during last 6 months (April to Septmeber) remaind below average fro almost all of QLD’s cropping region. The recent pattern of the SOI, “consistently positive” for the August-September period, indicates slightly increased chances of receiving above average rainfall in most parts of the state’s winter cropping region over the next 3-months (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au). In addition, further cooling of the sea surface temperature (SST) has occurred during September across the tropical Pacific Ocean and all climate models have now moved into a La Niña mode and is likely to continue into January 2021 (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso). However, a wet finish to the winter cropping season might increase the risk of diseases and harvesting problems, especially for late sown crops. Note: this outlook is only applicable to a summer (short) fallow crop management scenario. Longer fallow soils will have higher yield expectations.

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