Crop outlook

Summer and winter cropping forecasts for Queensland’s wheat and sorghum cropping industries are produced by QAAFI’s experts in the complex integration of spatial production modelling and climate forecasting. These crop outlooks are available for free to view and download by growers.

Wheat outlook (winter)

At present, this early in the cropping season, the winter wheat outlook is favourable and predicted median state level yield is ranked in the top 30% of all years. However, some variation in predicted yield outcomes exist within the state’s cropping region. Specifically, while most parts of southern Queensland (QLD) have an increased chance (> 70%) of this year’s wheat crop being above the long-term median, most of CQ has a slightly reduced chance of the forecast yield being above the long-term median yield for that region. This early in the season, widespread above average rainfall is needed across the state’s cropping region during June. This is needed to induce further planting opportunities and improve the current winter cropping conditions across the state. Currently, the likely range of yield outcomes is wide. This range will narrow over the next few months as the outlook is updated through the season. All climate indicators are currently suggesting an ENSO-neutral mode.

Sorghum outlook (summer)

The sorghum crop prospect for 2023/24 across the entire Australian summer grain region is predicted to be above long-term median. At this stage, the forecast yield distribution has now converged to around 3.48 t/ha, which is ranked in the top 15% compared to all years. All regions are predicted to have above average sorghum yield outcomes. However, some variability exists with most areas of SWQ and parts of SEQ having predicted yields above the long-term median expectation, while most areas in NNSW and CQ have sorghum yield expectations close to or slightly above the long-term median for that region. This crop outlook is based on a crop-free (fallow) period through the winter season.