SUMMARY
The current winter crop outlook for Queensland as a whole indicates a predicted crop yield of 1.34 t/ha, which is 28% below the long-term median yield expectation and within the lowest 5% relative to all years. This outlook incorporates current soil water conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook based on the southern oscillation index (SOI). The crop outlook for the state has deteriorated further to very much below average. Specifically, all regions have yield outcomes ranked in the bottom 20% of all years, while some northern parts of CQ and southern SEQ have yield outcomes falling below the 10th percentile relative to all years. Widespread above average rainfall is needed during the next two months to prevent the current crop outlook from worsening further. The range of yield predictions has narrowed considerably, while the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH status.
