Wheat crop outlook for June 2017 (Queensland, Australia)

12 June 2017

At this early stage in the winter crop season, chances for an above average yielding crop are similar to climatology (50:50) for the 2017 wheat crop across most of Queensland. However, a large variation in shire yields exists within the state’s cropping region.

Long-term median simulated shire yield using 2017 technology (115 years)

This forecast was derived from integrating starting soil water conditions and the seasonal rainfall outlook based on the southern oscillation index. Specifically, most parts of central QLD’s cropping region have an increased chance of an above average wheat yield. In contrast, most parts of south-western QLD have a reduced chance. The remainder of the state including parts of SEQ have chances close to 50:50 for an above average wheat yield this winter cropping season. Widespread above average rainfall is needed during the next few months to induce good planting opportunities and improve current winter cropping conditions. However, the likely range of yield outcomes is still very wide. This range will narrow considerably over the next few months as the outlook is updated through the season. Seasonal rainfall projections using historical analogue years based on SOI phases become more skilful for much of Queensland towards the end of July and it is recommended to follow the development of the SOI during the next couple of months. Although most international climate models are predicting sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean to contunue to warm over the next few months, some indicators are suggesting the likelihood of an El Niño event developing later this season to have stalled for now.

Full Qld Wheat Outlook for June 2017

Click to download National wheat outlook (Australia)